Concepts Worth Researching

Preface

The model breakdowns answer "does this signal make money?" The concept notes answer the prior question — "why would it, and through what mechanism?" Each note takes one idea that recurs across the catalogue and develops it from first principles: definitions, the relevant equilibrium argument, the testable claim, and the place where the repository puts it to the test.

These are deliberately written before, not after, the urge to trade. A concept understood only through its backtest is a concept half-understood; the failures in the model catalogue are far more legible once the theory says, in advance, where the edge can and cannot live. This series collects that theory.

Conventions. Notes are self-contained and citation-light — canonical results are named inline rather than surveyed. Shared definitions live in the glossary; evaluation conventions in methodology.md.